With the rise of accelerated underwriting (AUW) programs, it has become increasingly important to accurately estimate resulting mortality slippage. Although life insurance companies have always developed mortality estimates, the mortality data of historically declined applicants are not readily available for analysis since insurers do not track declined policies. To address this challenge, PartnerRe has developed research over the last several years to better understand the mortality impact of declinable risks entering accelerated underwriting programs, providing practical context for underwriting and risk management.
In this Quick Read, Ehren Nagel, Head of Actuarial Innovation, US Life and Joshua Herzog, Actuary – Accelerated Underwriting & Analytics, US Life, highlight their findings from recent declinable lab research, as detailed in a recently published whitepaper.
Mortality slippage is based on the comparison of accelerated decisions to decisions that would have been made under full underwriting. At PartnerRe, we recognized that often the largest driver of mortality slippage comes from a handful of declinable risks entering an insurance pool. Our previous research implemented a broad, high-level approach of examining all declines in a life insurance applicant pool. This research reflects a more bottom-up approach by analyzing the mortality risk of individual declinable conditions indicated by severe lab results. This allows us to achieve a more nuanced picture of declinable risk and the variation contained within the category.
In this research, we analyzed mortality outcomes for key lab measurements including GGT (Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase, measuring liver enzymes), eGFR (estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, measuring kidney function), and NT-ProBNP (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, a protein indicating heart strain) that could result in declines. This granular approach allowed us to differentiate values associated with truly severe mortality outcomes from those that merely exceeded the issuable threshold. For an example of stratification among these declinable ranges, we found a GGT of 500+ implies a first-year relative mortality risk of over 1800%, which then diminishes over time. By comparison, a BMI of 50+ shows consistently elevated mortality risk of about 500% with less change over time.
Such detail is valuable for teams evaluating their underwriting frameworks and questioning whether they are adequately capturing the most significant risks. Our findings establish the foundation for a framework that incorporates individual program capabilities when assessing mortality slippage.
As accelerated underwriting continues to expand, understanding the mortality impact of declinable risks entering these programs is critical. These results help clarify that mortality impact, providing practical context for both underwriting and risk management decisions.
As a top-tier global life reinsurer, we continue to expand and develop our suite of mortality quantification and monitoring tools to empower life insurance carriers to create data driven, actionable insights around claim expectations and mortality slippage.
Access our full whitepaper to learn more
Contributors
Ehren Nagel, Head of Actuarial Innovation
Joshua Herzog, Actuary – Accelerated Underwriting & Analytics