Recent outbreaks of Ebola in Central Africa and Hantavirus, linked to an international cruise, have attracted significant media attention and renewed questions about pandemic risk.
To help separate fact from speculation, and to better understand what these developments mean for the re/insurance industry, we spoke with Dr. Achim Regenauer, PartnerRe’s Chief Medical Officer for Europe and Asia Pacific.
Short answer: no. While both Ebola and Hantavirus infections can be severe, neither virus spreads efficiently at a global level, unlike COVID-19. As a result, their pandemic potential remains very low based on what we know today. It is important to distinguish between the severity of a disease, which can be high, and its ability to spread widely, which remains limited in both cases.
Unlike COVID‑19, neither virus is easily transmitted between people at a community level. Current assessments from international public health authorities indicate that the likelihood of these outbreaks developing into a global pandemic is very low to extremely low.
The current Ebola outbreak is already the 17th in the Democratic Republic of Congo since this virus was first detected in 1976 and this time it is caused by the Bundibugyo strain. It was likely amplified by an unsafe open‑casket funeral and delayed detection within a poorly informed population. Infectiousness increases as the disease progresses, peaking in its later stages, which makes the care of very ill patients and funeral practices the highest‑risk settings. There have also been reports of cases in Uganda and concerns are growing about potential spread to neighboring South Sudan.
Key uncertainties include the true scale of the outbreak, the potential for regional spread, and whether operational challenges could worsen. Despite these challenges, the situation remains, for the time being, a localized public health event at this stage.
Ebola is highly lethal but spreads inefficiently. Asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals are not thought to transmit the virus meaningfully, therefore, there is no large pool of “silent spreaders”. People also tend to become very ill quickly, limiting their ability to travel and spread the virus over long distances. Transmission requires close contact with infectious bodily fluids rather than airborne exposure and mainly occurs in caregiving and funeral settings. In these contexts, targeted infection control measures can effectively interrupt transmission chains before they expand more widely.
Both the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) stress that, although the situation constitutes an international public health emergency, the current risk to Europe and North America remains very low and it is considered highly unlikely to develop into a COVID-19-style pandemic.[1]
The cluster involves Hantavirus infections linked to a cruise ship and has been confirmed as the Andes virus, the only Hantavirus strain with documented human-to-human respiratory transmission under close, prolonged contact. Cases include severe pneumonic illness and deaths, but current assessments continue to rate the overall international risk as low.
Key uncertainties remain. It is not yet fully understood whether infections resulted mainly from rodent exposure or from person–to–person transmission, nor how factors such as exposure setting, duration and infectiousness influence infection risk. Genetic and epidemiologic investigations are ongoing, and risk estimates and guidance may evolve as new data emerge. To date, thirteen cases have been confirmed worldwide (including three deaths).
No, the comparison is misleading. Humans are typically infected by inhaling Hantavirus‑containing excreta of infected small mammals (e.g. field mice), rather than through person‑to‑person transmission like COVID‑19. The Andes strain (subtype) can, in some cases, be transmitted between humans, but only through close, prolonged contact. Presymptomatic transmission appears minimal to absent and sustained community spread has not been observed in past outbreaks.
The recent events involving both Hantavirus and Ebolavirus are limited outbreaks. While the COVID-19 pandemic also began as a localized event, both of these viruses are highly unlikely to develop into a global pandemic, as explained above and reflected in the table below. Their transmission characteristics – particularly the absence of sustained person-to-person spread – fundamentally limit their global spread potential.
That said, it is important to emphasize that beyond influenza and coronaviruses – historically the most likely candidates for future pandemics, typically occurring at irregular intervals of 20 to 40 years – other viral pathogens may also develop pandemic potential. These include viruses such as Nipah and Lassa. Over the past six decades, zoonotic outbreaks (transmitted between animals and humans) have increased in both frequency and severity in many parts of the world. Often driven by growing human encroachment into wildlife habitats, such as tropical forests, these spillover events suggest a broader, evolving pattern rather than isolated incidents.
How these viruses compare: transmission and pandemic risk
| Ebola | Hantavirus (Andes Strain) |
COVID-19 | |
| Transmission | Close contact with infectious bodily fluids | Rodent exposure / limited human transmission | Airborne |
| Contagion during incubation | No | No | Yes |
| Sustained person‑to‑person spread | Low | Very low | High |
| Pandemic potential | Extremely low | Extremely low | High |
These are serious public health events that require close and ongoing monitoring, but they do not currently signal a new global pandemic. Media coverage can often amplify COVID‑era fears; however, (re)insurers should remain vigilant by focusing on understanding and detecting underlying risk drivers and maintaining a balanced evidence‑based view of evolving risks.
PartnerRe closely monitors potential pandemics and emerging health risks to help our clients anticipate and manage evolving exposures. If you would like to discuss these developments or their potential implications for your business, we invite you to contact us.
Contributor
Dr. Achim Regenauer, Chief Medical Officer Europe & Asia Pacific
References
[1] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/ecdc-monitoring-ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo