Cat Models “Get Real”
Contributor: Dr. Paul Della-Marta, Research, PartnerRe; Manuel Prechtl, Research, PartnerRe.
Date: 10/1/2010
Stochastic catastrophe models price business based on thousands of generated events, but how do we know those modeled events and losses are realistic? A model’s “internal consistency” – broad agreement between observation and mathematical simulation - is one of the essential checks. A good stochastic model will show internal consistency at all stages of the modeling process. In this article our modelers explain this important check of a model’s ultimate reliability, using examples from PartnerRe’s CatFocus® tropical cyclone model.
Tags:
Non-specific,
Catastrophe perils